The Death of the LX: Real or Imagined?

Recently, I've noticed a distressing tendency on the part of several comp.sys.palmtops posters to declare the 200LX "dead." One is even going so far as to recommend that new palmtoppers not buy a 200LX, because of this supposed "dead"-ness. Now, I'm sure you can already guess what my answer to the title question is going to be, but I'd like to explain my reasons.

There are, it seems, really two aspects to the issue of the 200LXs future. One is, of course, whether there will be any more LXs, and if not, what form the next high-end HP PDA will take. The other, is whether the LX is still a viable platform. This latter question could be restated as "if there aren't going to be any more LXs, does it make sense to buy one?", and I believe the answer may be less obvious than it seems.

First Things First

Is the LX really dead? Perhaps, but if it is, it's got a lot more life left in it than the average corpse. Let's consider the state of the LX, as it exists today:

The 700LX is less than a year old, and is not only a significant new type of machine for HP's arsenal, but may well be the first sign of a new kind of PDA, where the phone/PDA combination becomes more than the sum of its parts in a small, convenient package. As digital cellular becomes more commonplace I have no doubt we will see products in this same vein from the other manufacturers, and some of them will probably be better than the 700LX. HP is doing it now, and they chose to build it not using GEOS or Pegasus, but using the LX platform.

Third party support is as strong as ever. For example, Shier Systems & Software and Ace Technologies show no signs of going out of business.

Support for Internet access, which some pundits are calling the "killer application" for PDAs, is available now, in the form of NetTamer and the soon-to-arrive WWW/LX.

"But what about a Windows 95 compatible Connectivity Pack?" I hear you asking. Certainly that's a point against the LX, but I don't think it's as significant as some people do. Read on to find out why.

But Is It Worth The Trouble?

Let's assume, for the sake of argument only, that there won't be another LX. At least one comp.sys.palmtops poster has jumped from that assumption to "you shouldn't buy a 200LX", which quite frankly mystifies me. Well, perhaps not, but I am surprised by the assumption that a perfectly good machine somehow becomes less useful because there might not be another one coming after it.

I can, in a way, understand the fears that underly this assumption. But, in the case of the 200LX, I think those fears are unfounded:

Maturity: The 200LX has gone through several revisions already. There are no known major bugs, and the current product is not deficient in any way that will require revision. The flurry of additions and fixes that occurs early in the life of a product are long behind the LX, those issues having been worked out between the 95 and 100. As long as no other product fills the LXs niche (more on this later) a replacement may never be necessary.

Built-In Usefulness: The LX has always had one of the most diverse collections of built-in software, and it is no less useful today than it was when the 100LX was released. In a comparison of functionality, the LXs built-in apps compare favorably to those in any other PDA. Certainly each palmtop and PDA has its advantages and disadvantages, but on the whole the HP is nowhere near the bottom of the pile, even now after a couple of years.

While we're on the subject of software, I will also point out that the huge piles of DOS software developed over the past 15 years or so are not going away, thanks to the Internet and CD-ROM. If HP discontinues the LX tomorrow, there will still be thousands of LX-compatible programs out there. It is true that there is not much new development for DOS these days, so if what you need hasn't already been written, you might not want a 200LX. On the other hand, many things have been done for DOS but not for PDAs, so you should carefully consider this issue no matter what machine you pick.

Standard Hardware: Even if the LX dies tomorrow, there should be no worries about getting accessories. The only proprietary item the HP needs is a serial cable, because of the unusual connector. Other add-ons, like memory and modems, are standard PCMCIA cards, and those won't be disappearing any time soon thanks to the large numbers of other platforms that use them. Sandisk won't stop making flash cards if the LX goes away, and I suspect Megahertz will be selling card modems well into the 21st century. Get the serial cable today, and take your time with the rest... it will still be there tomorrow.

HP Support: Yes, I know, HP customer service isn't as good as it could be. They charge a big chunk of change for repairs, and it's sometimes hard to get through to them on the phone. But consider this: they still repair HP95LXs, even though they are most definitely obsolete. No matter what problems HP has, they don't abandon their customers the morning after a new machine comes out.

The HP LX Niche

One of the problems, I think, is that the LX is simultaneously a niche product and a general purpose PDA. This is true to some extent for all PDAs, of course, because they all have their strengths and weaknesses. But it seems especially true of the LX.

It seems to me that the LX can be compared to HP's 48GX calculator line. The 48GX is not a calculator for everyone. It's grossly overpowered for even many not-so-casual users. Its feature mix is slanted heavily toward the scientific and statistical, so while it is capable of anything a business user might ask of it, it is in no way a "business calculator". Its user interface is different (and in many ways, more complex and arcane) than most, and not just because it uses RPN. If you don't need the specific features of the HP48, it's probably not the machine for you -- but if you DO need its added functionality, there is no other calculator that can fill its shoes.

Now, consider the LX. It is, if you look at it closely, a pocket computer first and a PDA second, rather than the other way around. As in the HP48, they could take out a lot of the features of the LX and the average person probably wouldn't notice. Like the HP48, it doesn't have the most intuitive user interface for the casual user. Like the HP48, it does things no other PDA can do. I'll be the first to admit that the majority of the PDA-using community can easily get along without DOS, just as the majority of calculator owners can safely bypass the HP48. On the other hand, some of us want and need the level of desktop compatibility the HP offers; for us, there are few alternatives.

In short, both the LX and the GX are power tools, and like most such things they aren't necessarily the right tool for every job. HP has recognized this for many years (as evidenced by their line of calculators), and I suspect they see the LX as another example of that philosophy.

Pegasus, Anyone?

We've all heard the rumors... HP will be introducing a Pegasus machine, soon after Pegasus officially exists. This should not be a surprise to anyone -- Pegasus boxes will most likely be introduced by, well, pretty much everyone in the PC industry. (Well, maybe not Apple and Psion...)

The erroneous assumption, I think, is that the Pegasus machine will necessarily be a replacement for the 200LX. In fact, a look at the specs of the Pegasus reference platform suggests that, unless HP comes up with something significantly better, it won't be much of a replacement for the LX in several important ways. For instance, there apparently won't be any direct palmtop/desktop software compatibility. The reference platform doesn't appear to have the capability of adding flash memory. We have no real idea what the PIM will be like, especially the database (if it even has one). Even though it will use a "subset" of the Windows API, we have no idea just how much extra development effort it will take to port Windows applications to Pegasus. We still have no indication of battery life or size.

In other words, it's far to early to predict HP's intentions. Pegasus has the potential to fill the LXs niche, but it remains to be seen what HP (or anyone else) will do with it. If HP follows the example of the reference platform, the new Pegasus box will be closer to the OmniGo 120 than to the 200LX -- and if that ends up being the case, I would bet on the 120 falling by the wayside, rather than the LX!

The Bottom Line

I'm not going to mislead anyone and say with certainty that there will be a 300LX. I don't expect to see a Windows 95 Connectivity Pack, especially if HP leaves the 200LX to the niche market. (Note, however, that the Connectivity Pack does work under Windows 95, with a little extra effort -- see the LX Help section of these pages for more information.)

I do think, though, that when you are buying a palmtop or PDA, it is wisest to consider what they do today, rather than what they will do tomorrow. In the fickle computer industry, buying a product in the hopes that later versions will do something the current one doesn't do is a ticket to certain disappointment. If you pick one that does everything you need it to do, there is a good chance you can save yourself the aggravation of wondering when the next one will arrive, and wait for an upgrade you really want rather than spending money on a new model you need just to get functionality you've wanted all along.

By the way, I know exactly how this feels. When I had my Newton (an original MessagePad, back when it was a new product) I was in love with the concept and potential of it, but disappointed that it didn't do everything I wanted it to. I wanted a good database, and there was none available. The handwriting recognition was good, but not perfect. I often thought about the next Newton, and whether it would be better suited to my needs than the current one. Once I discovered that the LX did everything I wanted and more (at the cost of pen input, a cost I don't regret paying) I switched. Now, I don't often care what the next LX will look like, because I probably won't upgrade to it anyway.

Well, this has turned out to be a rather longer editorial than I had planned. Enjoy the rest of this update of the HP200LX Palmtop Pages!